why market might have bottomed out
Today is a historic day that officially declares the bull market is over. Ironically, it might also be the day the market has bottomed out. Why I think so?
1. We’ve got the worst news – inflation hitting double digits..
2. Bank Nifty didnt break the low made on June 10 while both nifty and sensex broke the low.. Visibly there are signs of bottoming out
3. Reliance broke the dreadful 2100 level, its obvious that everyone will turn uber bearish now..
Logically, there might be a small downside left 5-10% but I think all the froth is getting out now.. Time to go and buy stocks one wants to.. Not saying they are cheap, but now the risk reward ratio is favourable.
I’d start picking stocks which I wanted to invest in – (Infact I already started.. Praj / IDFC to name a few.)
Stocks that will give good returns should be IT, Consumer Goods, pharma appears to be a bit of a bubble now.. One way to look at good stocks to buy now are – those that are still above 200EMA or are atleast 10-15% above Jan lows. (I know IDFC doesnt fit that criteria, still..
) There’s something with all the TV stocks.. Did nibble a bit of NDTV as well.
and Subex ‘cos I’ve met the CEO of the company and he’s an ultra smart guy.. I’d trust his management. O did I miss ballarpur (but I am in that stock for quite some time now) and sugars? and some brave guys should try banks for a possible up move of 20-30%
(sounds funny, with inflation hitting double digits and another repo rate hike in the offing..
)
Risks still remain especially the way US is delicately poised……
Lets see.
As it is evident now, I was wrong about my analysis then.. However, thankfully the wrongness didnt manifest itself in the balance sheet…..
gabhijit
November 1, 2008 at 11:10 am